I’d forgive you, European reader, if you look at the Republican field for president and wonder just what the hell is going on. Why does everyone care about tiny states likes Iowa and New Hampshire? And do this year’s candidates seem particularly crazy?
Remember that American presidential elections — both primary and general – are not national contests. They are a series of state-by-state elections, with primaries spread from January to July.
Because primaries are staggered, momentum matters: Win one of the early states – in order, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida – and the rest of the country notices. Barack Obama would have never won the Democratic nomination had he lost Iowa in 2008.
This year’s Republican field is one of the most volatile, and conservative, in modern history. With the Tea Party’s rise in the 2010 elections, the party is facing a monumental internal struggle between its ultra-conservative wing and intellectual/financial establishment.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is desperately trying to appeal to both. He is grudgingly accepted by the establishment: Intelligent, disciplined, and pro-business, he has built up an impressive campaign organization.
Romney struggles with base voters, though he’s desperately, and often unconvincingly, tries to prove his conservative bona fides. As a Republican governor of the country’s most liberal state, Romney has committed a too many traitorous crimes in conservatives’ eyes: he signed a Massachusetts healthcare law that dangerously resembles President Obama’s, and he has flip-flopped on critical social issues like abortion and homosexual rights.
The rest of the field is more conservative, but unacceptable to the establishment. The firebrand base has flirted with a series of challengers to Romney before all have faded fast: First, it was Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (gaffe-prone), then Texas Governor Rick Perry (credible resume, but embarrassing during debates), and finally the sharp-tongued pizza restaurant executive Herman Cain (accused of sexual misconduct). The rest – Jon Huntsman, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul – have never stood a chance, though Paul has a crucial role in Iowa (see below).
Then came former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. Seasoned observers scoffed that the undisciplined Gingrich wasn’t serious about the nomination, figuring he wanted the free publicity to sell books. They felt vindicated weeks later, when Gingrich took a vacation to Greece, prompting his top campaign staff to quit.
Yet Gingrich has returned to the top of the pack as the rest of the candidates have failed to threaten Romney. Gingrich has been sharp during the debates and is credible to conservatives – they remember his battles with Bill Clinton in the 90s – but his campaign structure is weaker than Romney’s.
Today, the race is between Gingrich and Romney, though, as Gingrich’s long record is examined by the national media, the former speaker of the house has slid in the polls. So who wins?
The answer is Mitt Romney, and here’s how:
Fringe candidate Ron Paul should be Romney’s best friend. Paul maintains a fanatical base in Iowa. Paul will split the Gingrich vote, and possibly even winning the state. Romney should finish a strong second, but Gingrich’s likely poor third-place showing should cause a drop in the polls elsewhere.
Romney will comfortably win New Hampshire, where he’s better organized and has more ideological affinity with northeast Republicans. The media will begin to talk about the inevitability of a Romney nomination; Gingrich will slide further.
Newt may win a narrow victory in South Carolina, but Romney will have shifted his focus to Florida, where retired northeastern Republicans should carry him to a win. He will have captured the momentum, and Newt should be fighting for his life.
The Gingrich-Romney battle could linger for a while, but Romney’s financial resources, electability, and superior campaign organization will outlast Gingrich.
Does Romney best Obama in November? Wait for my next column!
Jim Arkedis is a Senior Fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute. You’ll find him on Twitter @JimArkedis
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